AfD Wins Saxony-Anhalt Vote, Deepening EU Business Policy Uncertainty

The far-right Alternative for Germany has won a commanding first place in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, a result that adds a new layer of uncertainty for European business, UK exporters and London-based investors tracking Germany’s political direction.

According to preliminary official results from the 6 September election to the Landtag, the state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD received 43.8% of the vote after ballots were counted at all polling stations. The figures were released overnight into Sunday, 7 September. The party’s candidate for state premier is 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, and AfD co-chair Tino Chrupalla has already said Siegmund will put himself forward for the post.

The outcome marks a sharp setback for the Christian Democratic Union, the party of incumbent state premier Sven Schulze. The CDU received 17.2%, almost half its result at the previous election. The Social Democratic Party took 9.3%, the Greens 8.9%, and The Left 8.6%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, known as BSW, also entered the Landtag with 5.3%. The Free Democratic Party and other parties failed to clear the 5% threshold. Turnout was 77.8%.

On those results, the 83 seats in the Saxony-Anhalt parliament would be divided as follows: AfD 39 seats, CDU 15, The Left 8, the Greens 8, the SPD 8, and BSW 5.

London Looks at Coalition Risk and Sanctions Policy

For UK and European business audiences, the most consequential question is not only the AfD’s scale of support, but whether it can convert that result into power in a German state. Saxony-Anhalt is not Germany’s largest economy, but a political breakthrough by a far-right party in a regional government would be closely watched across the EU, including in London, where Germany’s policy stability remains an important input for sterling, equity sentiment and cross-border investment decisions.

The BSW could become pivotal. Its lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, Thomas Schulze, said after the election that he was open to talks with the AfD. He told dpa that BSW had said it would negotiate with all parties, including the AfD, and stressed that the party was not interested in a “firewall”.

“We have said that we will hold talks with all parties. That includes the AfD,” Thomas Schulze said, according to dpa.

Asked about possible common ground between the two parties, Schulze pointed above all to Russia policy. He said BSW opposed sanctions that, in his words, were “literally destroying our economy”. Both parties also support what they call “affordable energy”, including the resumption of oil and gas supplies from Russia.

That position is especially relevant for the UK and EU business community. Any regional political pressure against sanctions or in favour of renewed Russian energy flows would collide with the broader policy direction taken by Berlin, Brussels and London since Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine. Even where a state government cannot set sanctions policy on its own, the election result could sharpen debate inside Germany about energy costs, industrial competitiveness and the political durability of support for Ukraine-related restrictions.

For sterling, the link is indirect but clear: the pound often trades partly on relative European growth expectations, energy-price assumptions and confidence in political cohesion across major economies. A stronger anti-sanctions bloc in eastern Germany may therefore matter less as an immediate trading signal than as another source of medium-term policy risk for UK companies exposed to German supply chains and euro-area demand.

CDU Collapse Complicates Government Formation

The election was also a personal defeat for Sven Schulze, 47. He lost not only at state level but also in his own constituency in Magdeburg, where he received 31.7% against 35.2% for AfD candidate Christian Mertens. Schulze became state premier at the beginning of 2025. Before that, he served as economics minister and was a member of the European Parliament.

The CDU failed to win a single direct mandate. Its candidates lost in all 41 constituencies. AfD candidates won 38 constituencies, including Siegmund in Genthin. Only in the major cities of Magdeburg and Halle did the AfD fail to secure a convincing victory. At the 2021 state election, the CDU won direct mandates in 40 of 41 constituencies, while the AfD won one.

Despite his openness to talks with the AfD, Thomas Schulze also identified major policy gaps. He said AfD education policy was entirely unsuitable for BSW and that the parties were “very, very far apart” on that issue. He also said BSW held a much more socially oriented position on the economy. BSW has proposed a non-party state premier who would govern with shifting majorities involving the AfD.

Siegmund rejected that idea and said the AfD would not abandon its “values” and goals for political manoeuvring, according to Reuters. He ruled out coalitions requiring major compromises, saying voters should finally get what they voted for after elections. He said cooperation was possible only with those who supported the AfD’s demand for a clear change of course in the state, whether through a parliamentary group or individual lawmakers. Chrupalla told ARD the AfD was prepared to compromise in talks with other parties, including on migration and economic policy, provided they agreed to a “change of course”.

The previous Saxony-Anhalt coalition of the CDU, SPD and FDP suffered a heavy defeat. Apart from BSW, none of the parties entering the new Landtag has stated an intention to enter a coalition with the AfD.

That leaves government formation highly difficult. With 39 AfD seats, a possible minority government made up of the CDU, SPD and Greens would have 31 seats and could reach 40 only with full support from The Left. In that scenario, BSW’s five lawmakers could become decisive.

Schulze repeatedly said before the election that he did not want to depend on “either the right or the left”. There is also resistance inside the CDU to any cooperation with The Left. If Schulze is nominated again for state premier, dissent could emerge from his own ranks. CDU state lawmaker Eva Feussner has already warned Stern that if attempts are made to cooperate with the left, “entire local party branches” could unanimously leave the party.